The San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens advanced to their respective championship games as many predicted for the two No. 1 seeds.
But their lengthy layoffs did affect their rhythm to open the postseason. The Ravens appeared rusty before they took command in the second half to cruise, 34–10, against the Houston Texans.
The 49ers weren’t their usual selves until the final minutes, when Brock Purdy orchestrated a game-winning drive against the Green Bay Packers.
But how much stock do we put into the 49ers’ rocky performance? Or will they return to their dominant ways after a muddy come-from-behind victory? These are dilemmas to consider when it comes to over/under bets. The 49ers have a tough matchup at home against the Detroit Lions for the NFC title game.
The Ravens showed they’re still the Ravens, but they now have to face Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC title game. We’ve seen the Chiefs make great teams look ordinary many times in the Mahomes era.
We only have two games to bet on this week, but neither one appears to be a safe gamble. Here are this week’s best over/under bets (all total numbers are from SI Sportsbook).
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1. Chiefs (13–6) at Ravens (14–4)
Taking the over here was a difficult decision because the Chiefs have been great defensively most of the season while the offense has been inconsistent due to a lack of playmakers. But then last week occurred, with the roles reversed in the divisional-round victory against the Buffalo Bills. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the rest of the Chiefs’ offense stepped up while the defense struggled to contain Josh Allen & Co. for nearly three quarters. Yes, the Chiefs have to deal with the Ravens’ stacked defense, which ranks No. 1 in most statistical categories, but it’s hard to bet against Mahomes, especially after the performance he had in Buffalo. Not saying the Chiefs will win, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Mahomes produce 20-plus points in Baltimore.
As for Lamar Jackson and his Ravens’ offense, they can build off what the Bills did to disrupt the Chiefs’ defense. The Bills recorded 182 rushing yards vs. the Chiefs. The Ravens excel at running the ball, evident by the 229 rushing yards they had in last week’s win against the Texans. The Ravens’ defense gets the bulk of attention, but Jackson and his offense averaged 28.4 points per game in the regular season.
2. Lions (14–5) at 49ers (13–5)
The 49ers will need to play better than they did against the Packers last week to get by the Lions and advance to another Super Bowl. San Francisco’s vaunted defensive front with Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave didn’t register a sack vs. Packers quarterback Jordan Love, who gave them fits with his ability to extend plays away from the pocket. They also struggled to contain running back Aaron Jones. Now the 49ers have to face another balanced attack, with the Lions having the running back tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. But Lions quarterback Jared Goff isn’t known for his mobility and that could lead to the 49ers sacking him a few times and disrupting the pocket. It won’t be easy against all the weapons the Lions have offensively, but the 49ers didn’t play their A-game last week and they know if they can throw off Goff’s rhythm that could create takeaway opportunities.
49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has as many weapons as Goff, but he also needs to have a clean pocket to utilize his skill players. The Lions have many playmakers and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn loves to take chances. He often sent his defensive backs on blitz plays to pressure Baker Mayfield in last week’s win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But that backfired at times, as Mayfield connected with Mike Evans downfield. Perhaps Glenn won’t send extra pressure if he has to deal with versatile wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who could be questionable due to a shoulder injury. Fireworks will occur in this intriguing NFC title game, but this total line seems too high, so it’s worth the gamble to take the under.
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