The ripples from the Juan Soto record contract continue to spread. With the cost of keeping outfielder Kyle Tucker soaring because of it, the Houston Astros must give more consideration to trading him before he enters his platform season heading into free agency. That market is heating up, with the Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees engaged in conversations with Houston.
Tucker turns 28 in January, making him three years older than when Soto entered his platform season. (Never discount Soto’s age in his value. The Pirates just gave up three pitchers for a platoon first baseman who is than Soto in Spencer Horwitz, 27.) Tucker is not the hitter Soto is when it comes to plate discipline. But he is the better defender and runner and is growing into Soto-level power.
Like Adrian Gonzalez, Shawn Green and Tino Martinez, Tucker is a lefthanded hitter who’s adding power as he ages by learning to hit the ball in the air to the pull side. Check out his fly ball rates in the past four years:
Year
Fly ball rate
2021
33.5%
2022
37.7%
2023
32.7%
2024
41.3% (career high)
He projects to be a steady 30–40 home run hitter and .550 slugger who strikes out below the major league rate and walks above it. Add in premier defense and the ability to steal 30 bases and you have a rare player. Over the past four seasons, for instance, Tucker is one of only four players to average 25 homers and 20 stolen bases. The others are Shohei Ohtani, Francisco Lindor and José Ramirez.
What is his free agent value? Start with this snapshot of player stats from 2021–24 as your guide:
Player
Age
WAR
SLG
OPS+
AAV
Juan Soto
22–25
26.0
.520
164
$51.0M
Mookie Betts
28–31
23.8
.527
145
$30.4M
Kyle Tucker
24–27
21.2
.527
145
TBD
Corey Seager
27–30
19.2
.524
143
$32.5M
It’s easy to imagine Tucker at a $35 million AAV over 10 years, given the rate of Soto inflation. Now imagine you are the Astros. You’re looking at trying to keep free agent third baseman Alex Bregman away from the Yankees, with money burning a hole in New York’s pocket, and you have Tucker and staff ace Framber Valdez entering their walk years. And from ages 27–30, Valdez (55–30, 3.08 ERA, 112 starts, 132 ERA+) is in Max Fried’s neighborhood (47–25, 2.87 ERA, 101 starts, 147 ERA+).
Tucker, Bregman and Valdez have $700-$800 million in value. No wonder this market can cause the Astros to pivot quickly while still fielding a contender.
